The much-awaited Social Security COLA 2026 announcement has been put on hold after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) postponed the release of the September 2025 CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) data. This delay comes amid the ongoing government shutdown, which has affected several federal operations and economic reports.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) depends on this data to calculate the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for millions of beneficiaries across the United States.
Why the CPI-W Is So Important
Every year, the COLA ensures that Social Security and SSI benefits keep up with inflation. It’s calculated by comparing the average CPI-W of July, August, and September from the current year to the same months in the previous year.
Since the September 2025 CPI-W data has not been published yet, the SSA cannot finalize the official COLA percentage for 2026. Normally, this announcement happens by mid-October, but due to the shutdown, everything is on hold.
BLS Reschedules CPI Data Release
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the September CPI and CPI-W data, originally scheduled for October 15, 2025, will now be released on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
The BLS cited staff shortages and operational disruptions as reasons for the delay. Consequently, agencies like the SSA must wait before announcing their annual adjustments, including the 2026 COLA.
Expected COLA Rate for 2026
Even though the official data isn’t out yet, financial analysts estimate the 2026 COLA to be around 2.5% to 2.8%.
For the average retiree receiving $2,000 per month, this increase would mean an extra $50–$55 monthly starting January 2026. However, experts warn that rising Medicare premiums and living costs could reduce the real impact of this increase.
Economic Impact of the Delay
The shutdown doesn’t just affect government workers—it also disrupts the broader economy. When inflation reports like CPI-W are delayed, it creates uncertainty for financial markets, businesses, and policymakers.
Around 71 million Social Security and SSI beneficiaries are directly impacted by this delay, as they wait for clarity on their 2026 benefits.
SSA’s Response and Next Steps
The Social Security Administration has confirmed that it will announce the 2026 COLA soon after the CPI-W data is published. Beneficiaries can expect an update within a few days of October 24, 2025.
The SSA also reassured the public that the COLA increase will still take effect in January 2026, regardless of the delayed announcement. Beneficiaries will receive updated information through official letters and their My Social Security accounts.
History of COLA Delays
While rare, COLA delays have happened before during earlier government shutdowns. The most significant adjustments in recent years occurred during 2022 and 2023, when inflation surged after the pandemic.
In contrast, 2024 and 2025 saw more moderate increases as inflation stabilized. The 2026 delay stands out mainly because it comes at a time when the U.S. economy is still adjusting to inflation control measures.
What Beneficiaries Should Do Now
Experts suggest that Social Security recipients should not make any major budget changes until the official COLA 2026 announcement.
Beneficiaries can:
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Monitor updates on the SSA website or their My Social Security portal.
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Plan conservatively assuming a 2.5%–2.8% increase.
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Wait for the official SSA notice before adjusting monthly expenses.
Conclusion
The COLA 2026 delay highlights how a government shutdown can affect millions beyond federal employees. The postponement of CPI-W data has temporarily paused one of the most important annual announcements for retirees and SSI beneficiaries.
Once the BLS releases the September 2025 CPI-W on October 24, the SSA will calculate and publish the final COLA figure—expected between 2.5% and 2.8%. Despite the delay, beneficiaries can rest assured that payments will still increase starting January 2026 as planned.
FAQs
What is COLA in Social Security?
COLA stands for Cost-of-Living Adjustment, which increases Social Security and SSI payments to match inflation.
Why was the 2026 COLA announcement delayed?
The delay happened because the Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of CPI-W data due to the government shutdown.
When will the COLA 2026 be announced?
It’s expected to be announced soon after October 24, 2025, once the CPI-W data is released.
How much is the expected COLA increase for 2026?
Analysts predict a 2.5% to 2.8% increase in Social Security benefits for 2026.
Will my Social Security payment increase in January 2026?
Yes, even with the delay, the new COLA adjustment will take effect in January 2026.